PANEL MODELING OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF HUMAN RESOURCE POTENTIAL OF THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

Abstract

The article examines the features of modeling sustainable economic development of the human resource potential of the industrial sector of Ukraine in the context of military challenges, structural transformation of the economy and shortage of qualified workers. The need for the use of economic and mathematical tools that can take into account the time dynamics and specifics of individual sub-sectors of the industry is substantiated. The methodological basis of the study is formed on a combination of longitudinal data models with fixed effects, production linear regression, rating evaluation, forecasting and Harrington's desirability function. Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and the statistical functions AVERAGE, MINVERSE, MMULT, LINEST, TREND and RANK were used for calculations. The study was conducted using data from 2015 and 2020–2024 with forecasts for 2027–2029 in the context of the extractive, processing industries and the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sectors. It was found that the highest individual effect of human resource potential in the actual period is in the processing industry – 13.27, while in the extractive industry it is 10.82, and in the energy supply sector – 9.12. The constructed production model is characterized by high explanatory power, since the coefficient of determination is R² = 0.84. The forecasting showed that the processing industry will maintain its leading position, where the individual effect of human resource potential can reach 29.11, and the overall indicator of the industrial sector is 29.40. According to the Harrington desirability function, the integral assessment of the human resource potential of the industrial sector in 2027 is projected at 0.67, which corresponds to the qualitative characteristic of “good”, while in 2015–2024 the assessment mainly corresponded to the level of “satisfactory”. The results obtained confirm the effectiveness of the integrated use of panel and integral modeling for assessing, forecasting and substantiating management decisions regarding the development of the human resource potential of the industrial sector of Ukraine.