MODELLING AND ANALYTICAL JUSTIFICATION OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS IN THE GREEN ECONOMY SYSTEM

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of scientific and methodological approaches to modelling and analytical justification of managerial decisions in the green economy system at the level of territorial communities. The scientific problem addressed in this study lies in the fact that communities increasingly declare sustainable and green development priorities while lacking adequate analytical tools for the wellfounded selection, comparison and evaluation of managerial decisions in this field. As a result, green goals often remain at the level of strategic declarations and are not transformed into concrete, financially justified and realistic management actions. The green economy is examined not merely as an environmental development model but as a management system that integrates economic performance, resource efficiency, social cohesion, institutional capacity and digital decision-making support. For territorial communities, the green transition has a practical dimension: modernisation of municipal infrastructure, improvement of energy efficiency, waste management, support for local entrepreneurship, rational use of natural resources, preparation of investment projects and development of a results monitoring system. The article aims to substantiate a scientific and methodological approach to modelling and analytical support of managerial decisions in the green economy system at the level of territorial communities. The methodological basis consists of a set of research methods: systemic approach, structural and logical analysis, strategic analysis, scenario analysis, risk-oriented approach, elements of SWOT analysis, expert-analytical approach, case study method and the method of generalisation. Using the example of Podilsk urban and Savran settlement territorial communities of Odesa Oblast, the article proposes a structural and logical model of analytical justification of managerial decisions in the green economy system, which encompasses eight interrelated stages – from diagnostics of the community’s initial state to monitoring of results. The role of business analytics and digital tools in improving the quality of managerial decisions is determined. Eight key risk groups for the implementation of green decisions at the local level are identified: financial, institutional, infrastructural, personnel, informational, environmental, social and security risks. A formalised toolkit for multi-criteria assessment of managerial alternatives is proposed, based on an integral score, a risk score and a risk-adjusted score; the toolkit is illustrated through an expert-based assessment of three typical green economy alternatives for Podilsk urban and Savran settlement territorial communities. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the proposed model of analytical justification of managerial decisions in the green economy system of a territorial community, which combines strategic priorities, business analytics, scenario modelling and a risk-oriented approach. The practical value of the results consists in their applicability for local self-government bodies, regional development agencies, civil society organisations, strategic planning experts and participants in donor and grant recovery programmes.