UKRAINE’S REAL ESTATE MARKET UNDER MARTIAL LAW: CURRENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the current state and development trends of the real estate market of Ukraine under martial law. It is clarified that the real estate market should be considered as a system of economic relations, the development of which is determined by the influence of war-related risks, migration processes, investment constraints, and transformations in demand and supply. The main factors influencing the functioning of the market are identified, including security factors (related to the risks of military actions and the level of territorial safety), war-driven destructive factors (related to the physical destruction of real estate, damage to infrastructure, and resulting losses that reduce market supply and increase investment risks), investment and financial factors (related to changes in investment volumes and availability of financial resources), socio-demographic factors (related to large-scale internal and external migration of the population), economic factors (related to changes in household incomes, inflationary processes, and purchasing power), production and sectoral factors (related to the dynamics of construction activity, construction costs, and resource availability), labor factors (related to labor shortages and workforce migration), and institutional factors (related to the impact of state support programs and regulatory policy). Based on statistical data, the dynamics of damage and losses from the destruction of real estate, changes in the housing price index in the primary and secondary markets, the volume of housing commissioned, and the development of the rental market are analyzed. It is established that in 2022 the market experienced a sharp decline in construction activity and a disruption of the pre-war development trajectory; in 2023 it was  characterized by stagnation processes, while in 2024–2025 a gradual recovery was observed along with increasing regional differentiation. The growing role of state support programs as a tool for stimulating housing demand and ensuring partial stabilization of market processes under crisis conditions is identified. The systematization of influencing factors made it possible to identify their transformation into a set of interrelated challenges, namely a reduction in supply due to destruction, uneven distribution of demand, declining purchasing power of the population, limited investment activity, increasing construction costs, and labor shortages in the sector.