ENTERPRISE STRATEGIC PLANNING TOOLS DURING WARTIME: THE PIVOTAL ROLE OF FINANCIAL FORECASTING AND MODELING

Abstract

The ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine has dramatically transformed the business environment, turning strategic planning from a tool for long-term growth into a core mechanism for enterprise survival and resilience. Traditional static management approaches, designed for relatively stable economies, fail to address extreme geopolitical uncertainty, destruction of physical infrastructure, logistics disruptions, and currency fluctuations. This severe environment creates a critical need for flexible, dynamic, and integrated tools that allow businesses to anticipate risks and simulate alternative futures. The study aims to substantiate the transformation of corporate strategic planning tools during wartime, specifically focusing on the dominant role of financial forecasting and modeling in ensuring business adaptability and resilience under martial law. The study provides a comprehensive comparative analysis of traditional strategic tools (SWOT, PESTEL, Porter’s Five Forces, BCG and McKinsey matrices, Balanced Scorecard, and classic budgeting), identifying their operational limitations in highly volatile wartime settings. It is demonstrated that static frameworks rapidly lose relevance due to the high speed of environmental shifts. Consequently, the research argues for an evolutionary transition from deterministic planning to continuous adaptive management based on scenario building. The core contribution highlights the integration of rolling forecasts and modern financial modeling methods—such as What-if Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Stress Testing, and Monte Carlo Simulation—into the corporate strategy architecture. Furthermore, the paper suggests expanding the functional scope of empirical financial distress prediction models (particularly based on O. Tereshchenko’s methodology). Rather than using these models strictly for backward-looking crisis diagnostics, they should serve as a proactive informational foundation for identifying vulnerabilities and shaping adaptive strategic alternatives. The role of digital transformations, including ERP systems, Business Intelligence platforms, and Artificial Intelligence, is also emphasized as a critical driver for real-time decision-making. Successful wartime strategic management shifts focus from building a single optimal plan to ensuring the high speed of its adaptation. Integrating dynamic financial forecasting (rolling forecasts) and advanced stress-testing simulation models allows enterprises to quantitatively evaluate alternative scenarios, mitigate liquidity threats, and maintain long-term financial stability despite high uncertainty.