FORECASTING MACROECONOMIC RISKS AND THEIR IMPACT ON BUSINESS PROCESSES AND ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISES

Abstract

The article examines theoretical and applied aspects of forecasting macroeconomic risks and their impact on business processes and economic security of enterprises. Scientific and methodological approaches to defining the essence of the concept of “macroeconomic risk” are analyzed, namely: classical, monetarist, risk-oriented, systemic, globalization, managerial, etc. The author’s definition of the concept of “macroeconomic risk” is proposed as a set of threats and uncertainties that arise as a result of changes in macroeconomic conditions of the economy and can have a negative impact on business processes, financial results, competitiveness and the level of economic security of the enterprise. The main types of macroeconomic risks are characterized, in particular: inflationary, currency, interest tax, debt, budgetary, energy, etc. The consequences of their impact on business processes and economic security of enterprises are established. The division of risks into separate groups according to the sources of formation is proposed, namely: financial and monetary, fiscal and budgetary, production and economic, social and labor, geopolitical. The dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine during 2021-2025, which have the greatest impact on business processes and economic security of enterprises, in particular: the inflation rate, the unemployment rate, the NBU rate, the dynamics of exchange rate fluctuations, are analyzed. The main methods of forecasting macroeconomic risks are characterized, in particular: economic and statistical, simulation, expert, scenario analysis, artificial intelligence methods. The advantages and disadvantages of their use are established.