INTEGRATED MODEL FOR COORDINATED FORECASTING AND MANAGEMENT OF COUNTRIES’ DECARBONIZATION

Abstract

The article proposes an integrated model “Decarbonization – Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment” (D-CPFR) for assessing, forecasting and coordinating decarbonization processes at the macroeconomic level. Unlike traditional approaches, the proposed method combines country clustering based on self-organizing maps (SOM), nonlinear forecasting using multilayer perceptron (MLP) and mechanisms for mutual management of decarbonization processes between countries. The key scientific result is the formalization of a cluster-oriented approach, within which clustering is used not only as a tool for analytical grouping of countries, but also as a mechanism for forming a common information and coordination space for economies with similar structural characteristics. This allows us to represent forecasting models as tools for adaptive scenario-oriented decision support systems. It is substantiated that the use of nonlinear forecasting allows authors to take into account nonlinear relationships between economic, energy, institutional and social factors of countries’ decarbonization potential, as well as reduce structural forecasting errors for countries with high transformational instability. This approach was used as a basement for implementation mechanisms for intra-cluster and inter-cluster interaction of economies. Hence, ensuring the coordination of investment decisions, technology transfer and management of climate strategies, as well as transparency of decision-making. The practical significance of the model is the possibility of its application for the formation of adaptive climate policy, support for strategic planning of the energy transition, coordination of green investments and the development of international cooperation in the field of a country’s decarbonization. The proposed approach can be used as an analytical basis for building digital platforms for managing decarbonization processes at the national and international levels.