ESTIMATION OF MACROECONOMIC AND INSTITUTIONAL DETERMINANTS OF CRYPTO-INCLUSION

Abstract

The article develops a comprehensive scientific and methodological approach to assessing the factors influencing the level of consumer engagement in the cryptocurrency market. The relevance of the research is driven by the rapid digitalization of the global economy and the transformation of traditional financial systems, where crypto-inclusion has evolved from a niche trend into a significant factor of socioeconomic development. The authors propose a multi-dimensional algorithm that combines machine learning (k-means clustering) and econometric modeling (OLS regression) to quantitatively and qualitatively measure the determinants of consumer involvement. Based on the concept of “Push & Pull factors,” the study analyzes crypto-inclusion not as an isolated phenomenon, but as a consumer response to the state of the traditional macroeconomic and institutional environment. The empirical base of the study includes 35 countries representing over 70% of the global crypto market for the 2020–2024 period. Using k-means clustering, the countries were categorized into three homogeneous groups. The first cluster consists of developed economies (e.g., USA, Germany, Japan) where crypto-inclusion is driven by high financial literacy and investment motives. The second cluster includes developing nations (e.g., Argentina, Nigeria) where virtual assets serve as a survival tool and a hedge against high inflation and currency devaluation. The third cluster comprises global leaders in actual crypto usage, including Ukraine, Brazil, and India, which demonstrate high sensitivity to regulatory and infrastructure changes. Econometric evaluation revealed significant differences in determinants across these groups. In developed countries, crypto-inclusion correlates negatively with personal remittances, indicating the efficiency of the traditional banking sector. In contrast, for countries in the third cluster, including Ukraine, personal remittances show a significant positive impact, confirming the role of blockchain as a critical channel for cross-border payments. Furthermore, the study identified a strong negative impact of regulatory quality in transit economies, suggesting that deeper crypto-inclusion is an adaptive response to excessive administrative barriers in the classical financial sector.