ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF INVESTOR ACTIVITY IN STOCK MARKETS

Abstract

This article examines the theoretical and methodological foundations as well as the practical aspects of economic analysis of investor activity in stock markets, particularly in Ukraine, under a wartime economy. The relevance of the topic is substantiated in light of low liquidity, high volatility, information asymmetry, and the dominance of the domestic government bond segment. The key features of the national stock market that complicate the application of classical valuation models and require a combined approach to diagnosis are identified. The dynamics of investment attraction through the stock market in recent years are analyzed, and it is established that the main drivers of growth in 2024 were “war bonds,” the expansion of the base of individual investors, and regulatory changes by the NBU. Based on a review of the literature, a system of diagnostic indicators is proposed, incorporating both quantitative and qualitative methods. The conclusion is drawn that there is a need to further adapt international methodologies to the specifics of the Ukrainian market and to develop unified diagnostic standards for all categories of investors. The purpose of this article is to develop theoretical and methodological foundations and practical recommendations for conducting an economic analysis of investors’ activities in stock markets in order to improve the effectiveness of their decisions and minimize risks in times of instability. The study employed a range of general scientific and empirical methods. Among the general scientific methods used were: analysis and synthesis to break down the phenomenon into its components and subsequently integrate them into a coherent system of diagnostic indicators; induction and deduction, which allowed us to move from observations of individual investors’ behavior to general patterns of market functioning; and the method of abstraction to identify essential diagnostic characteristics without considering secondary factors. Empirical methods include the use of: statistical analysis to process quantitative data on the stock market; graphical methods to visually represent dynamics; comparative analysis to compare investors’ performance; and the case study method for an in-depth examination of investment strategies. At the final stage, the method of generalizing results was applied. This comprehensive approach ensures the validity, reliability, and practical significance of the research results. The study found that traditional models for evaluating investment performance have limited applicability in the Ukrainian stock market, which necessitates the development of combined diagnostic approaches. It was established that the main factors driving the growth in investment volumes in 2024 were the issuance of “military bonds,” the expansion of the base of individual investors through the “Diya” app, and the favorable regulatory policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. A system of diagnostic indicators is proposed that combines quantitative and qualitative methods, allowing for a comprehensive assessment of an investor’s activities. It has been demonstrated that the proposed methodology for economic diagnostics enhances the soundness of investment decisions in conditions of military instability, minimizes losses from currency and inflationary devaluation, and creates the conditions for integrating the Ukrainian stock market into the European capital infrastructure. Future research efforts should focus on developing adaptive models for economic diagnosis that account for constantly changing macroeconomic and security conditions, as well as on integrating Ukrainian stock market assets into the European capital market infrastructure.