ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC SECURITY OF UKRAINE: ASSESSMENT, ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

Abstract

The article examines the theoretical, methodological and applied aspects of econometric modeling of the level of economic security of Ukraine in modern conditions of socio-economic instability and high dynamics of external and internal risks. The relevance of using multifactor econometric tools for assessing, analyzing and forecasting key parameters of the state’s economic security is substantiated. It is determined that ensuring an adequate level of economic security is one of the priority areas of state economic policy, as it directly affects the financial stability, competitiveness of the national economy, social stability and prospects for the country’s post-crisis recovery. In the course of the study, an assessment of the dynamics of the main indicators of economic security was carried out, their interrelationships were analyzed and the most influential factors in the formation of the integral level of the state’s economic security were identified. According to the results of the analysis, it was established that the most significant influence is exerted by indicators of budget balance, population migration, labor productivity, bank lending volumes, the discount rate level and the corruption perception index. The article builds multifactor econometric models that describe the dependence of the level of economic security of Ukraine on certain factors. The comparison of models showed that the highest explanatory power and analytical value are characterized by nonlinear multifactor regression models, in particular the power model. Based on the developed model tools, forecasts of individual indicators of economic security were made and the main trends of their changes in the short term were determined. The practical value of the results obtained lies in the possibility of using the proposed approach as an analytical tool to support management decisions in the field of forming and implementing state policy to strengthen the economic security of Ukraine. The obtained models are characterized by limited explanatory power, therefore their results should be considered as approximate forecast estimates that reflect the general trend of chang.