RISK AS A COMPONENT OF FORMING STRATEGIC DECISIONS IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive theoretical and methodological justification for the essence and role of risk as an inherent element of strategic management and the formation of management decisions at agricultural enterprises under conditions of growing uncertainty and economic instability. It is proven that traditional approaches, focused exclusively on the identification, classification and isolated quantitative assessment of risks as external factors, lose their analytical value and do not provide an adequate explanation of real business processes. Risk is considered not as a separate management object or environmental parameter, but as a fundamental component of the logic of strategic decision-making under the limited rationality of management entities. The multidimensional functional role of risk in the strategic management system is revealed and detailed, which manifests itself through the functions of limitation (narrowing the spectrum of possible solutions due tonatural-climatic and resource limits), differentiation (changing priorities and criteria for selecting strategic alternatives), transformation (adjusting and adapting strategic actions over time), and indication (signaling the instability of economic processes). The author proposes classifying risks by the nature of their formation and manifestation. Within the framework of the approach, the following are distinguished: factor risks (caused by the action of individual identified factors); interaction risks (arising as a result of the nonlinear interaction of natural, economic, technological and institutional factors, the effect of which is not reduced to a simple sum); trajectory risks (associated with dependence on previous development and the irreversibility of strategic choice, which limits the space for future actions). An additional grouping of risks was carried out according to the criteria of measurability (measurable, partially measurable, undetermined), time parameters (short-term, deferred, cumulative), and the nature of the connection with decisions (exogenous, endogenous, induced by decisions). The specifics of the agricultural sector, which are determined by long-time lags between decision-making and results, spatial heterogeneity in operating conditions, information asymmetry, and the deferred and cumulative nature of the accumulation of negative effects (for example, soil depletion), are argued. On this basis, the need to transition from reactive risk management to proactive risk-oriented strategic management is substantiated.