THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS ON ENSURING THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE STATE

Abstract

The second phase of the Russian Federation’s military aggression against Ukraine exhibits all the characteristics of a “war of attrition.” Under such circumstances, one of the decisive factors of victory on the battlefield is the economic foundation, both in the form of a sufficient supply of means of attack and defense and in the stability of all socio-economic processes. Ensuring the economic security of the state becomes particularly relevant; therefore, the implementation of appropriate security activities should be based on a set of key threats. It is proposed to understand threats to the economic security of the state as a combination of actual phenomena and processes that complicate the realization of national interests and provoke imbalances in the national economy, leading to a deterioration of competitive positions in the global economic space. It is proven that demographic transformations significantly affect the economic security of the state. The purpose of the article is to clarify the nature of the impact of demographic transformations on ensuring the economic security of the state, particularly in view of the dominant influence of the threat of war.  To characterize the impact of demographic transformations on ensuring the economic security of the state, the following methods are applied: induction and deduction, comparison and systematization—to study the essential characteristics of the terms “economic security of the state” and “threat”; synthesis and analysis—to analyze the dynamics of key demographic characteristics in the period 1990–2025; morphological analysis—to develop possible scenarios that determine the further intensity of demographic transformations with a corresponding impact on the economic security of the state; and the abstract-logical method—for theoretical generalizations and research conclusions. Based on official statistical data and by comparing them with transformations taking place in EU countries, key changes that preceded and intensified during the war are identified and characterized. It is found that some transformations, in particular low fertility and population aging, are also relevant for EU countries; however, further population growth there is driven by migration. Approximate scenarios for changes in the intensity of demographic transformations are developed, differing by the further duration of hostilities, with clarification of the nature of their impact on the economic security of the state. The significance of human resources for post-war economic recovery is substantiated, which requires the application of a set of measures, including within competitive competition with EU countries.